Money & Cycles

Messages for the economy and markets from monetary trends and cycle analysis

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Will the UK join the double dip?

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Monetary trends suggest that UK economic performance will converge down to a weak Eurozone… Continue reading
This entry was posted in UK on 2 October 2024 by nongsang.

Why is US narrow money accelerating?

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A pick-up in US narrow money momentum is a hopeful signal for 2025 but requires confirmation and does not preclude near-term economic deterioration… Continue reading
This entry was posted in US on 26 September 2024 by nongsang.

Is Chinese money growth bottoming?

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Chinese money / credit trends remain weak but could be at a turning point… Continue reading
This entry was posted in China on 20 September 2024 by nongsang.

Is the ECB still too pessimistic on Eurozone inflation?

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Monetary considerations argue that the ECB’s latest inflation forecast, like earlier projections, will be undershot… Continue reading
This entry was posted in Eurozone on 18 September 2024 by nongsang.

Will services avoid the double dip?

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The “double dip” downturn in global manufacturing continued last month… Continue reading
This entry was posted in Global on 10 September 2024 by nongsang.

Author

Simon Ward is Economist / Strategist at NS Partners and an Economic Adviser to Janus Henderson.

Forecasting Process

Real (inflation-adjusted) money leads economic activity. Nominal money leads prices / inflation. "Excess" money drives markets. Economic fluctuations reflect the interaction of three investment cycles (stockbuilding, business capex, housing). More here.

Recent Posts

  • Will the UK join the double dip?
  • Why is US narrow money accelerating?
  • Is Chinese money growth bottoming?
  • Is the ECB still too pessimistic on Eurozone inflation?
  • Will services avoid the double dip?

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